According to you, which new idea or trend will have the biggest impact in 2026?
The realization that AI isn’t actual intelligence.
Continuing the thread of thought above, while addressing the actual topics, AI is “artificially” intelligent. In that LLMs can know a lot of stuff, but it isn’t actually what most people would consider “smart” or able to perform the role that a “smart” person would be able to perform.
Something like mental health is too nuanced that even experts don’t have all the answers. An LLM based AI will have the same shortcomings as experts, along with its own short comings that are vast.
Going beyond just addressing mental health, even basic tasks LLMs fall apart due to simply being a machine imitating thought. (see vending machine project). There’s also a lot of indication most companies are using AI completely incorrectly, and seeing huge amounts of “failed projects”. (ref) This is probably due to the sheer inability for LLMs to solve real-world problems by themselves and the widespread attempt at adoption, even without justification.
Ultimately, I believe 2026 will be a year that a divergence will occur between those that understand how to use AI correctly, and those that do not. This has been true but the hype train powered both sides equally, with more clear research being done into how/why AI has more or less failed to live up to the hype, actual work will get done in the realms it actually works. This goes for companies, and consumers.
Specific companies will see pushback from investors as all signs are pointing in the wrong direction in regards to “AI taking over jobs”. Others will see increased investments as companies realize how to correctly leverage this technology, along with stabilizing finances (see price changes/increases)
Consumers themselves are a little more tricky as they follow the hype, but even your average “AI user” already knows some limitations and sees the “seams”. No longer does anyone who uses AI expects it to get substantially better faster, nor expects to see some exponential explosion of capability. It might be in the headlines/titles but practically the “smarts” of AI are at its peak.
Which leaves me at what I believe the average new developer should focus on (the target audience of this forum/platform)
Its understanding the underpinnings, advantages and disadvantages of LLM powered AI. The future might still be AI powered, but it will be written in code, with an LLM being only one aspect of the stack. Even today, the most successful AI native systems are ones with the LLM only playing a small key part with humans and software code there to keep things deterministic.
Finally, keep questioning everything and stay curious. AI/LLMs are here to stay, but perceptions will change, the hype train will continue to chug, but at the end of the day all of this is done on the backs of human software engineers, so keep learning and keep building, and keep questioning!